TOMA, BEN

R · house

FEC candidate id: H4AZ08140
Internal id: 097b8b13-1aab-4304-baec-765b842c0745
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-08. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	802,956
People	Median age	43
Income	Median household income	$82,925
Income	Per-capita income	$44,046
Income	In poverty	10.3%
Income	Unemployed	4.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.446
Race	White alone	68.0%
Race	Black alone	3.9%
Race	Asian alone	5.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	22.1%
Race	Two or more races	15.2%
Origin	Foreign-born	12.2%
Language	Speaks English only at home	80.3%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	12.0%
Education	High school or higher	57.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	33.1%
Education	Advanced degree	12.7%
Household	Family households	65.4%
Household	Avg household size	2.47
Household	Never married (15+)	29.0%
Housing	Median home value	$416,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,651
Housing	Single-family detached	69.7%
Housing	Built before 1940	0.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	3.2%
Housing	Vacant units	7.5%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.7%
Health	With a disability	15.1%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.6%
Commute	Drove alone	65.2%
Commute	Public transit	1.0%
Commute	Worked from home	21.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$914,122	$914,122	$0	$0	$839,298

Elections

2024 general house · AZ-8 — lost_general

Committees

BEN TOMA FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$2,200,475	$26,429	60

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	support	$18,468	Online digital ad buy & production costs
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	support	$960	Administrative Consulting
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$6,204	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$13,003	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$14,135	MAILER PRODUCTION AND POSTAGE
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$10,875	DOOR HANGER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$13,003	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$13,054	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$6,204	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$14,135	MAILER PRODUCTION AND POSTAGE
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,000	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$2,844	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,000	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$2,500	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$6,383	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$66,000	DIGITAL AD PLACEMENT
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,777	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$30,000	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$2,500	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$13,003	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$13,003	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$2,500	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$13,054	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$13,003	MAILER PRODUCTION
2024-07-30	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	support	$4,335	TEXT MESSAGING

Connected on the graph

Inbound (60)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$18,468	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$960	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$14,135	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,204	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,777	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$13,003	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$13,054	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$13,003	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$13,003	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$13,054	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$13,003	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,204	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$14,135	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$10,875	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$13,003	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,844	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,383	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$66,000	fec_ies
2024-07-30	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$4,440	fec_ies
2024-07-30	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$4,335	fec_ies
2024-07-29	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2024-07-29	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$4,794	fec_ies
2024-07-29	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2024-07-29	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$4,794	fec_ies
2024-07-25	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
2024-07-25	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$25,000	fec_ies
2024-07-25	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$4,794	fec_ies
2024-07-25	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-07-24	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$250,000	fec_ies
2024-07-24	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$20,825	fec_ies
2024-07-24	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$26,267	fec_ies
2024-07-24	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-07-23	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$37,485	fec_ies
2024-07-22	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$26,267	fec_ies
2024-07-22	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$5,468	fec_ies
2024-07-17	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$266,000	fec_ies
2024-07-17	ARIZONANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP	supports_independently	$3,020	fec_ies
2024-07-17	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$266,000	fec_ies
2024-07-17	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$74,970	fec_ies
2024-07-17	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$74,970	fec_ies
2024-07-17	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$26,102	fec_ies
2024-07-15	ARIZONA'S BOLD ERA PAC (ABE PAC)	opposes_independently	$26,429	fec_ies
2024-07-15	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$26,102	fec_ies
2024-07-11	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$24,258	fec_ies
2024-07-10	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-07-10	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$250,000	fec_ies
2024-07-10	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-07-10	NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC	supports_independently	$250,000	fec_ies
2024-07-09	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,107	fec_ies
2024-07-09	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,107	fec_ies
2024-07-08	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$13,003	fec_ies
2024-07-05	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$24,254	fec_ies
2024-07-01	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$24,254	fec_ies
2024-07-01	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$24,254	fec_ies

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	BEN TOMA FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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