LINCOLN, KEVIN J II

R · house

FEC candidate id: H4CA09093
Internal id: 00a5b5e5-2100-4e19-8635-1077227e68df
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-13. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	785,894
People	Median age	32
Income	Median household income	$69,468
Income	Per-capita income	$27,323
Income	In poverty	18.8%
Income	Unemployed	10.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.453
Race	White alone	28.7%
Race	Black alone	2.9%
Race	Asian alone	6.8%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	66.1%
Race	Two or more races	24.9%
Origin	Foreign-born	27.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	43.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	48.8%
Education	High school or higher	43.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	14.1%
Education	Advanced degree	4.1%
Household	Family households	75.8%
Household	Avg household size	3.45
Household	Never married (15+)	41.4%
Housing	Median home value	$395,000
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,361
Housing	Single-family detached	75.8%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.9%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	10.8%
Housing	Vacant units	5.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	3.4%
Health	With a disability	12.2%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.4%
Commute	Drove alone	75.4%
Commute	Public transit	0.6%
Commute	Worked from home	7.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$1,264,735	$600,044	$688,815	$63,934	$767,453
2024	$2,278,918	$2,254,794	$24,124	$15,325	$1,335,501

Elections

2024 general house · CA-9 — lost_general
2024 general house · CA-13 — running
2026 general house · CA-13 — running

Committees

KEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-03-31	ANTI-WOKE FUND	24K	$5,000
2026-03-31	VICTORY AND FREEDOM PAC (VAF PAC)	24K	$5,000
2026-03-31	ULTRA MAGA PAC	24K	$4,000
2026-03-31	BUILDING RENEWAL IN AMERICA NOW PAC	24K	$2,000
2026-03-31	ANTI-WOKE FUND	24K	$5,000
2026-03-30	GREAT PLAINS PAC	24K	$2,500
2026-03-26	ANDY HARRIS FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2026-03-26	ANDY HARRIS FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2026-03-26	BRINGING REPUBLICAN EXCELLENCE TO TOWN PAC	24K	$2,500
2026-03-25	NRCC	24K	$5,000
2026-03-25	GROWING OUR OWN DYNAMIC ECONOMY NOW	24K	$5,000
2026-03-23	RVFPAC	24K	$2,000
2026-03-18	MIKE KENNEDY FOR UTAH	24K	$2,000
2026-03-18	AMERICAN DREAM DELIVERED	24K	$5,000
2026-03-18	MIKE KENNEDY FOR UTAH	24K	$2,000
2026-03-18	WORKING FOR OHIO	24K	$5,000
2026-03-17	FIRST IN FREEDOM PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-03-12	AMERICAN SECURITY PAC	24K	$1,000
2026-03-09	THE GUARDIAN FUND	24K	$5,000
2026-02-26	31 DAYS PAC	24K	$2,500
2026-02-23	MR. SOUTHERN MISSOURIAN IN THE HOUSE PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-02-09	EUREKA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$2,500
2026-01-20	ELECTING MAJORITY MAKING EFFECTIVE REPUBLICANS …	24K	$5,000
2026-01-20	EMMER FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2026-01-16	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$5,000

Top individual donors (2026 cycle)

Via this candidate's principal committee KEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESS.

Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.

Donor	Employer / occupation	City, ST	Gifts	Total
ZORB, MONTY L	ZORB CARWASHES LLC · CARWASH OWNER/FARMER	LODI, CA	9	$1,570
ARNAIZ, KELLY	RETIRED · RETIRED	LODI, CA	1	$1,500
QUINN, STEVE	AMERICAN PROPERTY ENTERPRISES · REAL ESTATE DEVELOPER	LA JOLLA, CA	1	$1,500
ARNAIZ, HOWARD	RETIRED · RETIRED	STOCKTON, CA	1	$1,500
MOORE-ZORB, CYNTHIA	ZORB CARWASHES · PILATES INSTRUCTOR	LODI, CA	2	$1,000
HAKEEM, MICHAEL D	HAKEEM, ELLIS, MARENGO AND RAMIREZ · ATTORNEY	STOCKTON, CA	1	$1,000
RISHWAIN, CONNIE	—	STOCKTON, CA	1	$1,000
OYOG, DAVID SOLOMON	RETIRED · RETIRED	STOCKTON, CA	1	$1,000
RUT, THOMAS M	RETIRED · RETIRED	STOCKTON, CA	1	$1,000
SCHATTYN, JOHN M	RETIRED · RETIRED	KERRVILLE, TX	23	$675
YANCEY, JO ANN	RETIRED · RETIRED	CONROE, TX	16	$514
WEIBEL, FRED	RETIRED · RETIRED	STOCKTON, CA	1	$400
MICHAELS, SUZANNE	RETIRED · RETIRED	SURPRISE, AZ	10	$315
DANZY, RUSSELL	RETIRED · RETIRED	PROVENCAL, LA	11	$305
DUNCAN, CHARLES	RETIRED · RETIRED	PAWLEYS ISLAND, SC	10	$284
DAUGHERTY, KATHY	RETIRED · RETIRED	NEWBURGH, IN	20	$254
WAX, CHARLES	RETIRED · RETIRED	RANCHO SANTA FE, CA	1	$250
BURNS, MICHAEL J	RETIRED · RETIRED	WEST PALM BEACH, FL	4	$210
STRECKER, LINDA	RETIRED · RETIRED	PROSPER, TX	9	$185
RITTENHOUSE, DIANN	RETIRED · RETIRED	MITCHELL, SD	5	$175
WOOD, DEBORAH	HOMEMAKER · HOMEMAKER	BENSON, NC	6	$157
OZBURN, CHRISTINE	RETIRED · RETIRED	ATLANTA, GA	5	$155
SHAYS, LORRAINE	RETIRED · RETIRED	DELRAY BEACH, FL	5	$150
CORCORAN, THOMAS	RETIRED · RETIRED	WOODBRIDGE, VA	4	$140
LUERA, CAROL	RETIRED · RETIRED	CARSON, CA	4	$140

Connected on the graph

Inbound (34)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-03-31	VICTORY AND FREEDOM PAC (VAF PAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-31	ANTI-WOKE FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-31	ANTI-WOKE FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-31	BUILDING RENEWAL IN AMERICA NOW PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-03-31	ULTRA MAGA PAC	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2026-03-30	GREAT PLAINS LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2026-03-26	BRINGING REPUBLICAN EXCELLENCE TO TOWN PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2026-03-26	ANDY HARRIS FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-03-26	ANDY HARRIS FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-03-25	NRCC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-25	GROWING OUR OWN DYNAMIC ECONOMY NOW	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-23	RVFPAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-03-18	MIKE KENNEDY FOR UTAH	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-03-18	MIKE KENNEDY FOR UTAH	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-03-18	AMERICAN DREAM DELIVERED	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-18	WORKING FOR OHIO	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-17	FIRST IN FREEDOM PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-12	AMERICAN SECURITY PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2026-03-09	GUARDIAN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-26	31 DAYS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2026-02-23	MR. SOUTHERN MISSOURIAN IN THE HOUSE PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-09	EUREKA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2026-01-20	ELECTING MAJORITY MAKING EFFECTIVE REPUBLICANS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-01-20	EMMER FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-01-16	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-01-16	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-12-22	MIKE JOHNSON FOR LOUISIANA	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2025-12-22	AMERICAN REVIVAL PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-09-30	BRINGING REPUBLICAN EXCELLENCE TO TOWN PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-09-23	JOHN DUARTE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2025-09-11	EUREKA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-09-09	THE LINCOLN CLUB OF ORANGE COUNTY FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-08-07	THE MAJORITY	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-07-21	SUPPORT TAXFIGHTERS & ELECT EFFECTIVE LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	KEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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