CHAPA, MIGUEL
R Β· house
Sign in to add to a watchlist β
- FEC candidate id
H4CA25230- Internal id
eddd308b-cd86-41f9-bfc9-51f98aca7cb9- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-25. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 780,646 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $66,572 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $29,480 |
| Income | In poverty | 15.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 8.3% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.452 |
| Race | White alone | 31.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 66.5% |
| Race | Two or more races | 31.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 25.5% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 46.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 50.5% |
| Education | High school or higher | 45.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 17.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 6.0% |
| Household | Family households | 71.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.06 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 37.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $377,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,339 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 63.1% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.8% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 8.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.5% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.7% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.7% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 8.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $726 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $20,694 | $19,968 | $726 | $20,903 | $12,020 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· CA-25 β lost_general
Committees
- MIGUEL CHAPA FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | MIGUEL CHAPA FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |