MANVEL, MARIE
OTHER Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4CA31220- Internal id
16e00dc9-7930-49a7-8adf-1f7d337a032e- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-31. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 736,368 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $91,699 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $35,167 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.426 |
| Race | White alone | 21.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 19.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 61.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 23.8% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 35.2% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 38.4% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 43.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 50.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 25.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.0% |
| Household | Family households | 78.0% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.32 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 39.9% |
| Housing | Median home value | $699,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,980 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 63.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 7.1% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 12.0% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 3.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 3.0% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 71.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 2.1% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.1% |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· CA-31 β lost_general
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 10.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.