RATHS, GREGORY GERARD
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4CA45089- Internal id
522a7f53-e00f-4996-be23-a67a7679b9b6- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-45. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 748,896 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $107,226 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $44,637 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.9% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.444 |
| Race | White alone | 30.3% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.1% |
| Race | Asian alone | 38.3% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 30.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 15.8% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 37.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 46.1% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 20.3% |
| Education | High school or higher | 58.2% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.7% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.1% |
| Household | Family households | 76.1% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.11 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 35.1% |
| Housing | Median home value | $897,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,250 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 58.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 2.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 9.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 3.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 3.3% |
| Health | With a disability | 10.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 94.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.0% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 71.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.0% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $7,769 | $4,267 | $0 | $5,500 | $68 |
| 2020 | $1,412,757 | $1,408,703 | $1,998 | $5,500 | $1,206,876 |
| 2018 | $0 | $19,487 | $0 | $51,013 | $0 |
| 2016 | $238,505 | $193,147 | $19,487 | $217,918 | $114,868 |
| 2014 | $428,345 | $407,330 | $21,914 | $169,332 | $116,863 |
Elections
- 2014 general house Β· CA-45 β lost_general
- 2016 general house Β· CA-45 β lost_general
- 2020 general house Β· CA-45 β lost_general
Committees
- GREG RATHS FOR CONGRESS 2016 β principal Β· type H
- GREG RATHS FOR CONGRESS 2020 β principal Β· type H
- GREGORY RATHS 2014 β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Connected on the graph
Inbound (14)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2021-05-19 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $8 | 24A | fec_pas2 |
| 2021-05-19 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | contributed_to | $8 | pas2 | |
| 2021-01-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $9 | pas2 | |
| 2021-01-28 | WINRED | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $9 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
| 2021-01-15 | WINRED | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $6 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
| 2021-01-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $6 | pas2 | |
| 2021-01-13 | WINRED | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $6 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
| 2021-01-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $6 | pas2 | |
| 2021-01-04 | WINRED | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $8 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
| 2021-01-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $8 | pas2 | |
| 2021-01-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2021-01-01 | WINRED | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $2 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
| 2021-01-01 | WINRED | contributed_to | $2 | pas2 |
Outbound (3)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | GREGORY RATHS 2014 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | GREG RATHS FOR CONGRESS 2020 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | GREG RATHS FOR CONGRESS 2016 | β | candidate_committees |