MCGRAW, JOE
R · house
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- FEC candidate id
H4IL17101- Internal id
ae8bf8fc-ad5e-4754-95b9-55c78cf02054- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IL-17. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 746,022 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $59,364 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $33,489 |
| Income | In poverty | 17.8% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.459 |
| Race | White alone | 70.6% |
| Race | Black alone | 13.1% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.2% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 11.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 9.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 6.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 88.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 7.0% |
| Education | High school or higher | 56.7% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 24.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.7% |
| Household | Family households | 56.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.23 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 38.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $132,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $904 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.1% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 7.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 87.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.0% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 9.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4,291 | $5,884 | $0 | $0 | $-66 |
| 2024 | $1,510,549 | $1,508,956 | $1,593 | $0 | $944,499 |
Elections
- 2024 general house · IL-17 — lost_general
Committees
- JUDGE JOE MCGRAW FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $409,942 | $170,000 | 43 |
Recent (latest 25)
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-25 | LET'S ALL KEEP ELECTING REPUBLICANS PAC | 24K | $-1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (44)
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | JUDGE JOE MCGRAW FOR CONGRESS | — | candidate_committees |