SCOTT, MARVIN BAILEY
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4IN10047- Internal id
334e62c9-1b94-435f-a259-f5ba137f894a- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2002 | $2 | $560 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2000 | $84,525 | $84,108 | $557 | $0 | $75,477 |
| 1998 | $16,158 | $16,150 | $140 | $0 | $14,316 |
| 1996 | $127,947 | $133,140 | $133 | $850 | $104,038 |
| 1994 | $75,179 | $69,852 | $5,325 | $0 | $65,629 |
Elections
- 1994 general house Β· IN-10 β lost_general
- 1996 general house Β· IN-10 β lost_general
- 1998 general house Β· IN-10 β lost_general
- 2000 general house Β· IN-10 β lost_general
Committees
- MARVIN SCOTT FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | MARVIN SCOTT FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees |