THERIAULT, AUSTIN LEO
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4ME02291- Internal id
87b725e7-28b2-452e-aab3-dacbd7a2e2a2- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), ME-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 692,100 |
| People | Median age | 45 |
| Income | Median household income | $64,428 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $37,355 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.450 |
| Race | White alone | 91.7% |
| Race | Black alone | 1.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 0.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 1.9% |
| Race | Two or more races | 4.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 3.3% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 94.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 0.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 63.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 28.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 10.3% |
| Household | Family households | 60.0% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.24 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 28.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $218,700 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $959 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 71.4% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 23.3% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 8.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 18.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 73.7% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 12.7% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $8,340 | $13,770 | $11,047 | $0 | $3,276 |
| 2024 | $3,628,072 | $3,611,595 | $16,478 | $0 | $2,273,223 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· ME-2 β lost_general
Committees
- THERIAULT FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $583,693 | $14,381,183 | 141 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | HMP | oppose | $66,164 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $327,810 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $48,194 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $9,100 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $48,194 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $9,100 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $18,729 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $47,556 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $42,120 | Radio Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $99,792 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $2,558 | Radio Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $392,536 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $2,323,428 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $47,556 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $66,164 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $18,729 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $327,810 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $327,810 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $81,119 | Direct Mail - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $241,161 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $1,060,636 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $4,735 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $42,120 | Radio Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $78,497 | Direct Mail - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $373,300 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $3,413 | fec_ies | |
| β | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $30,065 | fec_ies | |
| β | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $30,065 | fec_ies | |
| β | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $47,859 | fec_ies | |
| β | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $2,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $4,735 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $373,300 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $57,240 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $2,558 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $42,120 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $99,792 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $42,120 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $99,792 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $8,728 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $20,992 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $39,971 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $42,120 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $149,178 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $149,787 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $1,041,329 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $83,724 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $4,735 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $1,263,600 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $11,657 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $88,709 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $85,663 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $8,728 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $20,992 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $39,971 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $42,120 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $149,178 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $149,787 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $42,120 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $1,041,329 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $4,232 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $6,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $81,119 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $241,161 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $1,060,636 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $42,120 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $78,497 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $392,536 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $2,323,428 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $2,558 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $42,120 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $99,792 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $9,100 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $18,729 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $47,556 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $48,194 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $327,810 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $66,164 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $327,810 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $9,100 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $18,729 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $47,556 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $48,194 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $327,810 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $66,164 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,070 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $300 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $5,661 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,860 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $2,100 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $2,400 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $3,575 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $3,914 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,760 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,050 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,050 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-12 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $580 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-04 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $606 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $610 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $510 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $320 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $60 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,060 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,030 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $860 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $720 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $15,644 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $2,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $2,157 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,860 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,550 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,320 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,209 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,120 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-28 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $50,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC | supports_independently | $12,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA | supports_independently | $8,624 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,992 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $29,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $160 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $360 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $420 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $800 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $800 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $810 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | POLE POSITION PAC | supports_independently | $1,120 | fec_ies |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | THERIAULT FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |