AVLON, JOHN
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4NY01204- Internal id
ab2fb68a-103f-4f68-9cd0-f6e1f7e25555- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 778,092 |
| People | Median age | 44 |
| Income | Median household income | $134,242 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $63,494 |
| Income | In poverty | 6.2% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.6% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.457 |
| Race | White alone | 74.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 15.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 10.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 13.5% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 81.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 9.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 69.2% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 46.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 22.2% |
| Household | Family households | 71.7% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.75 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.7% |
| Housing | Median home value | $628,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,309 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 82.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 15.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 4.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 10.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 93.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 71.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 4.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $5,298,300 | $5,297,995 | $304 | $0 | $4,388,801 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· NY-1 β running
Committees
- RENEW NEW YORK β principal Β· type N
- RENEW NEW YORK β independent Β· type N
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $2,568,754 | $100,013 | 39 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $210,000 | Media Buy & Production - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $28,500 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $100,000 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $116,075 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $164,850 | Digital Advertising & Production - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $151,500 | Digital Advertising & Production - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $50,000 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $100,000 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $425,000 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $127,350 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $36,860 | Direct Mail - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $254,700 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $94,000 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $100,000 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $36,860 | Direct Mail - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $120,000 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $109,217 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $165,500 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $36,860 | Direct Mail - Estimate |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | support | $40,000 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| 2024-11-01 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $1,491 | SMS communications |
| 2024-10-29 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $1,564 | SMS communications |
| 2024-10-28 | COMMON SENSE NEW YORK | support | $22,017 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-10-23 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $2,500 | Digital advertising |
| 2024-10-21 | DMFI PAC | support | $2,600 | Print Advertising (Estimate) |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (39)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $210,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $28,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $100,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $116,075 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $164,850 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $151,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $50,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $100,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $425,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $127,350 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $36,860 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $254,700 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $94,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $100,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $36,860 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $120,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $109,217 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $165,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $36,860 | fec_ies | |
| β | WELCOMEPAC | supports_independently | $40,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $1,491 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-29 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $1,564 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-28 | COMMON SENSE NEW YORK | supports_independently | $22,017 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $2,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-21 | DMFI PAC | supports_independently | $2,600 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | DMFI PAC | supports_independently | $1,250 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | NY COMMON GROUND | supports_independently | $68,005 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | DMFI PAC | supports_independently | $1,650 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $4 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $47 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $61 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $125 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $168 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-13 | 314 ACTION FUND | opposes_independently | $10,018 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-13 | 314 ACTION FUND | opposes_independently | $11,926 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-11 | 314 ACTION FUND | opposes_independently | $12,026 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-10 | 314 ACTION FUND | opposes_independently | $18,039 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-06 | 314 ACTION FUND | opposes_independently | $23,952 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-04 | 314 ACTION FUND | opposes_independently | $24,052 | fec_ies |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | independent_committee_of | RENEW NEW YORK | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | RENEW NEW YORK | β | candidate_committees |