ESPOSITO, ALISON

R · house

FEC candidate id: H4NY18117
Internal id: e0bf2597-8866-407d-9f55-496d3c421d04
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-18. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	786,484
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$94,063
Income	Per-capita income	$47,058
Income	In poverty	11.6%
Income	Unemployed	5.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.462
Race	White alone	65.9%
Race	Black alone	10.4%
Race	Asian alone	3.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	19.3%
Race	Two or more races	11.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	12.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	77.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	12.0%
Education	High school or higher	63.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	36.6%
Education	Advanced degree	16.4%
Household	Family households	64.3%
Household	Avg household size	2.56
Household	Never married (15+)	35.5%
Housing	Median home value	$381,700
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,609
Housing	Single-family detached	60.7%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.7%
Housing	Vacant units	7.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	4.9%
Health	With a disability	12.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	91.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.8%
Commute	Drove alone	67.6%
Commute	Public transit	4.0%
Commute	Worked from home	14.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$5,115	$8,450	$10,523	$0	$-1,176
2024	$2,435,666	$2,421,807	$13,859	$0	$1,295,966

Elections

2024 general house · NY-18 — lost_general

Committees

ESPOSITO FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
ESPOSITO FOR CONGRESS-GTM NF NY18 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$634,392	$3,004,524	77

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,308	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,984	MAILER POSTAGE
—	NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUND	support	$923	phone bank hours
—	NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUND	oppose	$598	phone bank hours
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$150	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUND	oppose	$598	phone bank hours
—	HMP	oppose	$596,160	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$13,516	Media Production - Estimate
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,308	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$61,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,308	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,134	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	HMP	oppose	$596,160	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$6,520	DOOR HANGER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,308	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$3,875	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$6,457	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$3,654	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,134	MAILER PRODUCTION
2024-10-28	1199 SEIU NEW YORK STATE POLITICAL ACTION FUND	oppose	$486	Direct Mail Production and Distribution (Estimate)
2024-10-25	PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA	support	$11,116	Digital Advertising (also opposes Ryan)
2024-10-24	DCCC	oppose	$32,172	Digital Media Buy Estimate

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2025-03-30	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$30

Connected on the graph

Inbound (78)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$923	fec_ies
—	NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUND	opposes_independently	$598	fec_ies
—	NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUND	opposes_independently	$598	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$13,516	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$596,160	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$596,160	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,134	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,308	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,308	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,520	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,134	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,984	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$61,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,457	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,308	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$150	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,875	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,308	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,654	fec_ies
2025-03-30	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$30	pas2
2024-10-28	1199 SEIU NEW YORK STATE POLITICAL ACTION FUND	opposes_independently	$486	fec_ies
2024-10-25	PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA	supports_independently	$11,116	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$9,623	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$32,172	fec_ies
2024-10-23	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,984	fec_ies
2024-10-18	WFW ACTION FUND INC	supports_independently	$19,140	fec_ies
2024-10-18	WFW ACTION FUND INC	supports_independently	$19,140	fec_ies
2024-10-17	DCCC	opposes_independently	$9,623	fec_ies
2024-10-17	DCCC	opposes_independently	$32,174	fec_ies
2024-10-16	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,134	fec_ies
2024-10-16	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
2024-10-16	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
2024-10-15	AFSCME WORKING FAMILIES FUND	opposes_independently	$4,846	fec_ies
2024-10-15	VOTEVETS	opposes_independently	$350,000	fec_ies
2024-10-15	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,984	fec_ies
2024-10-10	DCCC	opposes_independently	$32,174	fec_ies
2024-10-10	DCCC	opposes_independently	$9,624	fec_ies
2024-10-09	VOTEVETS	opposes_independently	$19,012	fec_ies
2024-10-08	EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)	opposes_independently	$250,000	fec_ies
2024-10-08	DCCC	opposes_independently	$15,000	fec_ies
2024-10-08	DCCC	opposes_independently	$1,500	fec_ies
2024-10-08	DCCC	opposes_independently	$1,500	fec_ies
2024-10-07	VOTEVETS	opposes_independently	$300,000	fec_ies
2024-10-07	VOTEVETS	opposes_independently	$200,000	fec_ies
2024-10-04	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$19,823	fec_ies
2024-10-04	WFW ACTION FUND INC	supports_independently	$280,000	fec_ies
2024-10-03	DCCC	opposes_independently	$25,741	fec_ies
2024-10-03	DCCC	opposes_independently	$8,250	fec_ies
2024-10-02	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$13	fec_ies
2024-10-02	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$866	fec_ies
2024-09-30	WFW ACTION FUND INC	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
2024-09-26	DCCC	opposes_independently	$25,741	fec_ies
2024-09-26	DCCC	opposes_independently	$8,250	fec_ies
2024-09-26	DCCC	opposes_independently	$25,741	fec_ies
2024-09-26	DCCC	opposes_independently	$8,250	fec_ies
2024-09-25	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,911	fec_ies
2024-09-24	AFSCME WORKING FAMILIES FUND	opposes_independently	$288,000	fec_ies
2024-09-24	AFSCME WORKING FAMILIES FUND	opposes_independently	$7,562	fec_ies
2024-09-20	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$19,823	fec_ies
2024-09-19	DCCC	opposes_independently	$6,875	fec_ies
2024-09-19	DCCC	opposes_independently	$19,306	fec_ies
2024-09-19	DCCC	opposes_independently	$6,875	fec_ies
2024-09-19	DCCC	opposes_independently	$19,306	fec_ies
2024-09-13	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$19,823	fec_ies
2024-09-12	DCCC	opposes_independently	$19,306	fec_ies
2024-09-12	DCCC	opposes_independently	$22,500	fec_ies
2024-09-12	DCCC	opposes_independently	$6,875	fec_ies
2024-09-11	DCCC	opposes_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
2024-09-11	DCCC	opposes_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
2024-09-09	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$-15,250	fec_ies
2024-09-06	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$19,823	fec_ies
2024-09-05	DCCC	opposes_independently	$19,306	fec_ies
2024-09-05	DCCC	opposes_independently	$6,875	fec_ies
2024-07-31	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
2024-07-30	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$54,000	fec_ies

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	ESPOSITO FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	ESPOSITO FOR CONGRESS-GTM NF NY18	—		candidate_committees

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