MERRIN, DEREK

R · house

FEC candidate id: H4OH09169
Internal id: ac08a42e-8a29-4c73-8ec9-19c4806b5be1
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), OH-09. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	781,702
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$66,739
Income	Per-capita income	$39,128
Income	In poverty	14.8%
Income	Unemployed	5.4%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.470
Race	White alone	76.5%
Race	Black alone	11.9%
Race	Asian alone	1.4%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	7.7%
Race	Two or more races	7.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	3.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	94.6%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.5%
Education	High school or higher	60.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	27.8%
Education	Advanced degree	10.4%
Household	Family households	60.0%
Household	Avg household size	2.30
Household	Never married (15+)	34.2%
Housing	Median home value	$174,200
Housing	Median gross rent	$920
Housing	Single-family detached	71.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.2%
Housing	Vacant units	10.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.3%
Health	With a disability	15.2%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.2%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.9%
Commute	Drove alone	80.7%
Commute	Public transit	0.8%
Commute	Worked from home	7.9%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$776,466	$664,184	$188,933	$50,000	$354,198
2024	$1,722,804	$1,646,153	$76,651	$0	$666,548

Elections

2024 general house · OH-9 — lost_general
2026 general house · OH-9 — running

Committees

DEREK MERRIN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
MERRIN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
MERRIN FOR OH-09 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2026 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$37,000	$86,000	8
2024	$640,892	$9,319,404	167

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	oppose	$164,465	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$11,672	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	HMP	oppose	$231,425	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$26,495	MAILER POSTAGE
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$11,672	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$53,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$11,770	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$3,875	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$2,400	DOOR HANGER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$11,672	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,836	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$6,223	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$53,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$11,680	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,836	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$80,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$6,630	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,728	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	HMP	oppose	$189,292	Digital Advertising - Estimate

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2025-12-31	GLASS CITY PAC	24K	$2,027
2025-09-30	GLASS CITY PAC	24K	$3,500
2025-09-30	GLASS CITY PAC	24K	$1,472

Top individual donors (2026 cycle)

Via this candidate's principal committee DEREK MERRIN FOR CONGRESS.

Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.

Donor	Employer / occupation	City, ST	Gifts	Total
JOHNSON, DENNIS	SUMMIT PETROLEUM · CHAIRMAN & CEO	MIDLAND, TX	1	$2,000
MILLENBAUGH, KYLA	THE ANDERSONS INC · SUPERVISOR	TOLEDO, OH	1	$1,000
REICHERT, ROBERT	DORR STREET CAFE · OWNER	OTTAWA HILLS, OH	1	$1,000
AHL, THOMAS	THOMAS AHL CHRYSLER · AUTO DEALER	LIMA, OH	1	$250
HUSUM, CAROL	RETIRED · RETIRED	TOLEDO, OH	1	$200
HUYGHE, WAYNE	RETIRED · RETIRED	TOLEDO, OH	1	$104
VAN SCOY, MARTIN	RETIRED · RETIRED	TOLEDO, OH	1	$100

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	AMERICAN RESOLVE PAC, INC.	opposes_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
—	NORTHWEST OHIO FREEDOM FUND PAC	opposes_independently	$2,000	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$11,450	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$29,742	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$189,291	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$29,661	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$26,640	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$29,661	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$168,834	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$66,667	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$388,238	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$122,625	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$11,673	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$11,673	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$8,250	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$890	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$8,250	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$11,673	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$890	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$66,667	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$412,305	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$122,625	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$59,906	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$9,998	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$7,325	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,200	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$189,292	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$164,465	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$231,425	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$122,625	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$388,238	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$11,004	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$55,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$168,834	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,176	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$55,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$238,110	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$55,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$11,004	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$19,450	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,229	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$26,495	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,672	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,672	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,672	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,875	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,728	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,630	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$80,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,836	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,836	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,400	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,223	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,680	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,770	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$53,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$53,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
2026-05-05	AMERICANS UNITED FOR VALUES	opposes_independently	$4,500	fec_ies
2026-05-05	AMERICANS UNITED FOR VALUES	opposes_independently	$4,500	fec_ies
2026-05-04	AMERICAN RESOLVE PAC, INC.	opposes_independently	$17,000	fec_ies
2026-04-29	HONORING AMERICAN LAW ENFORCEMENT PAC	supports_independently	$25,000	fec_ies
2026-04-29	LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR A SAFER AMERICA PAC	supports_independently	$12,000	fec_ies
2026-04-27	AMERICAN RESOLVE PAC, INC.	opposes_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2026-04-27	AMERICAN RESOLVE PAC, INC.	opposes_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2025-12-31	GLASS CITY PAC	contributed_to	$2,027	pas2
2025-09-30	GLASS CITY PAC	contributed_to	$1,472	pas2
2025-09-30	GLASS CITY PAC	contributed_to	$3,500	pas2
2024-11-01	HOUSE CONSERVATIVES	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
2024-10-31	PRO-CHOICE WOMEN	opposes_independently	$149,902	fec_ies
2024-10-31	NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$1,192	fec_ies
2024-10-28	DCCC	opposes_independently	$25	fec_ies
2024-10-28	DCCC	opposes_independently	$3,514	fec_ies
2024-10-28	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$26,495	fec_ies
2024-10-25	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	supports_independently	$12,000	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$21,760	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$31,749	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$93,414	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$271,972	fec_ies
2024-10-23	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$26,495	fec_ies
2024-10-22	PRO-CHOICE WOMEN	opposes_independently	$8,684	fec_ies
2024-10-22	VPP	opposes_independently	$389	fec_ies
2024-10-21	PRO-CHOICE WOMEN	opposes_independently	$7,480	fec_ies
2024-10-21	NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$1,116	fec_ies
2024-10-21	PRO-CHOICE WOMEN	opposes_independently	$74,710	fec_ies
2024-10-18	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$558	fec_ies
2024-10-18	PRO-CHOICE WOMEN	opposes_independently	$349,927	fec_ies
2024-10-18	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$50	fec_ies
2024-10-17	DCCC	opposes_independently	$21,760	fec_ies
2024-10-17	DCCC	opposes_independently	$31,750	fec_ies
2024-10-17	DCCC	opposes_independently	$93,414	fec_ies
2024-10-17	DCCC	opposes_independently	$271,335	fec_ies
2024-10-17	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$195	fec_ies

Outbound (3)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	principal_candidate_of	DEREK MERRIN FOR CONGRESS	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	MERRIN FOR CONGRESS	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	MERRIN FOR OH-09 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2026	—	candidate_committees

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