BONDAR, PAUL L
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4OK00026- Internal id
1a754911-5e8e-413f-8dbe-dd2130547489- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), OK-04. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 804,349 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $67,010 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $35,458 |
| Income | In poverty | 14.7% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.447 |
| Race | White alone | 68.3% |
| Race | Black alone | 7.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 10.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 14.0% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 91.2% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 5.4% |
| Education | High school or higher | 59.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 27.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 10.2% |
| Household | Family households | 64.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.49 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $197,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,044 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 74.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.7% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 9.7% |
| Health | With a disability | 18.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 76.9% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 9.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $17,702 | $214 | $106,242 | $5,621,690 | $100 |
| 2024 | $5,720,498 | $5,631,745 | $88,754 | $5,621,690 | $20,016 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· OK-4 β lost_general
Committees
- ELECT PAUL L. BONDAR β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $0 | $3,834,504 | 18 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-07 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $240,000 | TV Broadcast, Cable, Radio |
| 2024-06-06 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $8,187 | Texts |
| 2024-06-06 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $33,346 | Mailer |
| 2024-06-06 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $170,000 | TV, cable, radio |
| 2024-06-06 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $100,000 | Broadcast TV, Cable, Radio |
| 2024-06-03 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $12,187 | Texting |
| 2024-06-03 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $152,000 | TV Advertising |
| 2024-06-01 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $100,000 | Digital Ads |
| 2024-06-01 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $43,783 | TV, Radio, Digital Production costs |
| 2024-05-24 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $315,000 | TV, Radio, Cable buy |
| 2024-05-24 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $35,000 | Digital, Mail, Production |
| 2024-05-21 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $450,000 | Media Ad Buy: TV, Cable, Radio |
| 2024-05-16 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $425,000 | TV, Radio, Cable - Media Buy |
| 2024-05-13 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $500,000 | Broadcast TV, Cable, Radio |
| 2024-05-13 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $250,000 | Digital Ads, Mailings, Radio and Production Costs |
| 2024-05-13 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $250,000 | Digital Ads, Mailings, Radio and Production Costs |
| 2024-05-13 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $500,000 | Broadcast TV, Cable, Radio |
| 2024-05-10 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | oppose | $250,000 | Media Ad Buy and Production |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (18)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-07 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $240,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-06 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $8,187 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-06 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $33,346 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-06 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $170,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-06 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $100,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-03 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $12,187 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-03 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $152,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-01 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $100,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-01 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $43,783 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-24 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $315,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-24 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $35,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-21 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $450,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-16 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $425,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-13 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $500,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-13 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $250,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-13 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $250,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-13 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $500,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-10 | AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC | opposes_independently | $250,000 | fec_ies |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | ELECT PAUL L. BONDAR | β | candidate_committees |