ABER, ROBERT M

D · house

FEC candidate id: H4PA20012
Internal id: 9afaab99-5bf0-42bb-9cdf-6697c8119d79

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
1984	$11,356	$10,637	$717	$0	$8,753

Elections

1984 general house · PA-20 — lost_general

Committees

No committees on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

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