LAWRENCE, CASE MCKAY
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4UT03278- Internal id
ab3297bc-e8b5-4cba-9fab-2e614b8bf974- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), UT-03. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 821,200 |
| People | Median age | 31 |
| Income | Median household income | $94,670 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $44,410 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.7% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.465 |
| Race | White alone | 80.6% |
| Race | Black alone | 0.9% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.3% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 12.7% |
| Race | Two or more races | 9.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 8.5% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 84.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 9.5% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.7% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 44.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 15.0% |
| Household | Family households | 72.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.93 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.9% |
| Housing | Median home value | $556,400 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,511 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 62.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 2.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 3.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 3.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 10.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 3.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 65.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.7% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 18.9% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $3,128,654 | $3,128,654 | $0 | $0 | $362,518 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· UT-3 β lost_general
Committees
- CASE FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $9,792 | $0 | 2 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-22 | ALL IN FOR UTAH | support | $4,896 | Text Messages |
| 2024-06-22 | ALL IN FOR UTAH | support | $4,896 | Text Messages |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (2)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-22 | ALL IN FOR UTAH | supports_independently | $4,896 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-22 | ALL IN FOR UTAH | supports_independently | $4,896 | fec_ies |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | CASE FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |