RILEY, PAUL
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4VA05063- Internal id
2d3dbbc1-7ee4-4a2f-9ea6-ea98fe84ba40- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), VA-05. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 798,638 |
| People | Median age | 42 |
| Income | Median household income | $72,558 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $41,062 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.9% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.481 |
| Race | White alone | 69.8% |
| Race | Black alone | 19.9% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 93.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 3.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 63.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 34.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.8% |
| Household | Family households | 63.0% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.38 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $276,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,114 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.9% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 85.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 11.9% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 73.0% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.0% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3,245 | $19,812 | $-3,853 | $0 | $3,245 |
Elections
Committees
- PAUL RILEY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee PAUL RILEY FOR CONGRESS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAULSON, NANCY | DMR ADVENTURES Β· MUSICAL THEATER TEACHER | CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA | 1 | $1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | PAUL RILEY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |