GUZMAN, ELIZABETH

D · house

FEC candidate id: H4VA07275
Internal id: ad3a782f-c671-4076-a2b1-0a13b206c2bb
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), VA-07. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	806,870
People	Median age	37
Income	Median household income	$113,817
Income	Per-capita income	$47,986
Income	In poverty	7.3%
Income	Unemployed	4.5%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.399
Race	White alone	52.9%
Race	Black alone	20.3%
Race	Asian alone	5.2%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	17.9%
Race	Two or more races	12.3%
Origin	Foreign-born	16.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	77.3%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	13.1%
Education	High school or higher	63.0%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	37.7%
Education	Advanced degree	15.1%
Household	Family households	73.3%
Household	Avg household size	2.87
Household	Never married (15+)	31.7%
Housing	Median home value	$438,000
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,813
Housing	Single-family detached	68.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	3.0%
Housing	Vacant units	4.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	12.9%
Health	With a disability	10.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.9%
Commute	Drove alone	68.2%
Commute	Public transit	1.9%
Commute	Worked from home	16.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$318,182	$318,182	$0	$0	$237,582

Elections

2024 general house · VA-7 — lost_general
2026 general house · VA-7 — running

Committees

GUZMAN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
GUZMAN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$200,435	$0	21

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$5,886	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$1,411	Graphic Design & Production
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$2,216	Text Messaging
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$2,216	Text Messaging
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$5,390	TV Ad
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$866	Ad Production and Design - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$2,304	Door Literature -Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$1,203	Door Literature -Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$10,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$2,808	Door Literature -Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$5,000	Digital Radio Advertising - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$41,200	Staff Time -Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$85,858	Canvassing - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$7,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$7,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$6,349	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$6,349	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$4,380	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$500	Graphic Design - Estimate
2024-04-03	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$2,421	Door Literature
2024-03-20	CASA IN ACTION PAC	support	$76	Graphic Design

Connected on the graph

Inbound (21)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$5,886	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$1,411	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$2,216	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$2,216	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$5,390	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$866	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$2,304	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$1,203	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$2,808	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$41,200	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$85,858	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$7,000	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$7,000	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$6,349	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$6,349	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$4,380	fec_ies
—	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$500	fec_ies
2024-04-03	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$2,421	fec_ies
2024-03-20	CASA IN ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$76	fec_ies

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	GUZMAN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	GUZMAN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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