MCDOWELL, CHASE
R · house
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- FEC candidate id
H6AR02278- Internal id
adf2ee89-c0ee-444d-b296-5b8759210cdc- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AR-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 761,775 |
| People | Median age | 38 |
| Income | Median household income | $65,200 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $37,971 |
| Income | In poverty | 14.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.475 |
| Race | White alone | 68.3% |
| Race | Black alone | 20.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 6.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 93.1% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 4.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.7% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 33.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.0% |
| Household | Family households | 62.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.36 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $211,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,028 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 67.2% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.1% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.0% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 11.3% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 16.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 78.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.4% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 10.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $163,105 | $163,105 | $0 | $0 | $163,105 |
Elections
- 2026 general house · AR-2 — running
Committees
- MCDOWELL FOR ARKANSAS — principal · type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee MCDOWELL FOR ARKANSAS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMITH, THOMAS | RETIRED · RETIRED | HOUSTON, TX | 3 | $549 |
| LUERA, CAROL | RETIRED · RETIRED | CARSON, CA | 2 | $474 |
| JEROME, PEGGY | RETIRED · RETIRED | LIBERTY HILL, TX | 19 | $256 |
| FINKELSTEIN, SARAH | RETIRED · RETIRED | CHARLESTON, SC | 9 | $160 |
| LEHENBAUERINGLE, VIRGINIA | RETIRED · RETIRED | ENID, OK | 12 | $146 |
| HACKL, MARK | RETIRED · RETIRED | OLDSMAR, FL | 4 | $98 |
| EMILSON, CARL. G | PSSI · SELF-EMPLOYED | STUART, FL | 6 | $97 |
| BURNS, MICHAEL J | RETIRED · RETIRED | WEST PALM BEACH, FL | 3 | $92 |
| DRONE, DARLENE | RETIRED · RETIRED | RIDGWAY, IL | 3 | $80 |
| WU, JIAN | RETIRED · RETIRED | MATHEWS, NC | 4 | $79 |
| DUNCAN, CHARLES | RETIRED · RETIRED | PAWLEYS ISLAND, SC | 6 | $76 |
| DANLY, VERA | RETIRED · RETIRED | PENSACOLA, FL | 6 | $76 |
| SELIG, ROBERT J | RETIRED · RETIRED | BLOOMFIELD, CT | 3 | $69 |
| TAYLOR, ALINE | RETIRED · RETIRED | GULFPORT, MS | 5 | $61 |
| OZBURN, CHRISTINE | RETIRED · RETIRED | ATLANTA, GA | 3 | $59 |
| JEFFERY, ROGER | RETIRED · RETIRED | SPRING, TX | 7 | $49 |
| REDFIELD, LOUISE | RETIRED · RETIRED | CHATHAM, MA | 1 | $47 |
| FISHER, JAMES | RETIRED · RETIRED | CANFIELD, OH | 1 | $47 |
| STUART, PATRICIA | RETIRED · RETIRED | DEKALB, IL | 2 | $46 |
| HICKMAN, ABTHONY | RETIRED · RETIRED | HOLLYWOOD, FL | 2 | $46 |
| SNEARLY, MARTHA | RETIRED · RETIRED | BROADVIEW HEIGHTS, OH | 2 | $46 |
| SPANN, CINDY | RETIRED · RETIRED | PENSACOLA, FL | 2 | $35 |
| LINDQUIST, JOAN | RETIRED · RETIRED | BEDMINSTER, NJ | 1 | $26 |
| HART, BARBARA | RETIRED · RETIRED | LEAGUE CITY, TX | 1 | $26 |
| MCGRATH, JAMES | FOX CHASE CANCER CENTER · SYSTEMS ANALYST | CHALFONT, PA | 1 | $26 |
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | MCDOWELL FOR ARKANSAS | — | candidate_committees |