DONNELLY, BRANDON
D Β· house
Sign in to add to a watchlist β
- FEC candidate id
H6AZ01421- Internal id
e479b5b0-a4a8-4b71-a489-f7b6a8b52b5d- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 804,578 |
| People | Median age | 44 |
| Income | Median household income | $99,999 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $69,449 |
| Income | In poverty | 8.7% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.510 |
| Race | White alone | 71.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 3.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 4.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 17.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 13.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 12.5% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 82.5% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 10.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 67.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 52.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 20.9% |
| Household | Family households | 57.8% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.21 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $642,100 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,780 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 56.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 0.8% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 94.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 3.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 63.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 26.3% |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· AZ-1 β running
Committees
- DONNELLY 4 ARIZONA β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | DONNELLY 4 ARIZONA | β | candidate_committees |