ADAMS-FALCONER, THOMAS MICHAEL JR.
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6CA38121- Internal id
a1e8e61d-c595-46e4-9b8e-f7915fb89b03- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-38. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 740,416 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $99,648 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $39,518 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.435 |
| Race | White alone | 21.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 22.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 60.0% |
| Race | Two or more races | 19.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 32.5% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 41.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 39.5% |
| Education | High school or higher | 55.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 30.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 10.2% |
| Household | Family households | 78.7% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.21 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 37.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $766,700 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,992 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 69.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 8.1% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 9.8% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 3.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 3.0% |
| Health | With a disability | 10.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 93.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.0% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 73.0% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 12.1% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $33,529 | $31,894 | $2,447 | $38,474 | $31,029 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· CA-38 β running
Committees
- TJ ADAMS-FALCONER FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee TJ ADAMS-FALCONER FOR CONGRESS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HENLEY, DONALD | DONALD HENLEY Β· PROFESSIONAL MUSICIAN, WRITER, PRODUCE | CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA | 1 | $1,000 |
| DUKELOW, DANA | RATE Β· MORTGAGE BANKER | PALM SPRINGS, CA | 1 | $250 |
| STANG, DONALD | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | OAKLAND, CA | 1 | $150 |
| BURKE, MICHAEL | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | REDONDO BEACH, CA | 1 | $100 |
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | TJ ADAMS-FALCONER FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |