CARBONARA, MICHAEL
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6FL25035- Internal id
4b4ca3e5-6774-4964-8b9a-dab37323fce3- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), FL-22. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 786,471 |
| People | Median age | 46 |
| Income | Median household income | $81,071 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $50,055 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.515 |
| Race | White alone | 51.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 17.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 28.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 17.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 30.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 60.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 24.0% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 15.3% |
| Household | Family households | 63.1% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.50 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $416,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,876 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 46.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 3.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 16.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 4.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 69.2% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.9% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2,526,428 | $1,893,255 | $633,173 | $2,311,676 | $49,132 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· FL-22 β running
Committees
- CARBONARA FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,892 | $0 | 4 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-06 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | support | $350 | PRINTING |
| 2025-07-22 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | support | $701 | DONOR MEMENTOS / PRINTING |
| 2025-07-22 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | support | $128 | DONOR MEMENTOS / PRINTING |
| 2025-07-15 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | support | $712 | DONOR MEMENTOS / PRINTING |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | 24E | $350 |
| 2026-02-17 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | 24E | $441 |
| 2026-01-28 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | 24E | $2,604 |
| 2025-10-06 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | 24E | $350 |
| 2025-07-22 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | 24E | $701 |
| 2025-07-22 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | 24E | $128 |
| 2025-07-15 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | 24E | $712 |
| 2025-06-18 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | 24E | $457 |
| 2025-06-09 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | 24E | $925 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (13)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | contributed_to | $350 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-17 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | contributed_to | $441 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-28 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | contributed_to | $2,604 | pas2 | |
| 2025-10-06 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | contributed_to | $350 | pas2 | |
| 2025-10-06 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | supports_independently | $350 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-07-22 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | supports_independently | $701 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-07-22 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | contributed_to | $701 | pas2 | |
| 2025-07-22 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | contributed_to | $128 | pas2 | |
| 2025-07-22 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | supports_independently | $128 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-07-15 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | supports_independently | $712 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-07-15 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | contributed_to | $712 | pas2 | |
| 2025-06-18 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | contributed_to | $457 | pas2 | |
| 2025-06-09 | AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. | contributed_to | $925 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | CARBONARA FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |