NOLLEY, PAUL
D · house
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- FEC candidate id
H6IL16108- Internal id
428014ac-b4cc-49e6-a8f8-925aaa4cdd21- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IL-16. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 748,860 |
| People | Median age | 42 |
| Income | Median household income | $84,411 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $43,872 |
| Income | In poverty | 8.2% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.427 |
| Race | White alone | 86.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 7.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.8% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 92.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 3.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.2% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 31.6% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 11.2% |
| Household | Family households | 66.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.43 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 27.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $200,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,020 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 79.4% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 7.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.1% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 78.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $236,891 | $77,336 | $159,555 | $3,690 | $192,038 |
Elections
- 2026 general house · IL-16 — running
Committees
- NOLLEY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS… | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-02-19 | UA UNION PLUMBERS & PIPEFITTERS VOTE! PAC (UNIT… | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-12-17 | INT'L UNION OF BRICKLAYERS AND ALLIED CRAFTWORK… | 24K | $2,500 |
| 2025-12-16 | UAW - V - CAP (UAW VOLUNTARY COMMUNITY ACTION P… | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-12-10 | INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF BOILERMAKERS CAMPA… | 24K | $3,000 |
| 2025-10-27 | CITIZENS FOR THE 16TH | 24K | $961 |
| 2025-08-28 | INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SHEET METAL, AIR, … | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-05-22 | INT'L ASSOCIATION OF BRIDGE, STRUCTURAL, ORNAME… | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-03-28 | INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS… | 24K | $5,000 |
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee NOLLEY FOR CONGRESS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY, RANDALL | EASTERSEALS · PRINCIPAL | ROCKTON, IL | 1 | $1,000 |
| LOWRY, BRIAN | CATERPILLAR · ENGINEER | WASHINGTON, IL | 1 | $250 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (9)
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | NOLLEY FOR CONGRESS | — | candidate_committees |