ROGERS, ASHLEIGH
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6MO04265- Internal id
878c5e3e-fbdc-40ac-9d8e-d0bc9053b127- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MO-04. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 782,304 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $67,043 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $34,631 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.438 |
| Race | White alone | 85.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 5.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 94.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.5% |
| Education | High school or higher | 60.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 25.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.0% |
| Household | Family households | 65.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.50 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 28.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $220,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $966 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 73.4% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 15.2% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 9.2% |
| Health | With a disability | 16.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 87.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 9.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 10.3% |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· MO-4 β running
Committees
- ASHLEIGH ROGERS FOR CONGRESS 2026 β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | ASHLEIGH ROGERS FOR CONGRESS 2026 | β | candidate_committees |