WILLETT, NATHAN

R · house

FEC candidate id: H6MO06294
Internal id: a5e0d193-de93-4ad1-8060-16794d7e83ca
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MO-06. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	775,000
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$73,975
Income	Per-capita income	$37,484
Income	In poverty	11.4%
Income	Unemployed	3.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.447
Race	White alone	87.9%
Race	Black alone	3.7%
Race	Asian alone	1.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	4.2%
Race	Two or more races	5.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	2.6%
Language	Speaks English only at home	95.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.0%
Education	High school or higher	63.1%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	27.1%
Education	Advanced degree	9.8%
Household	Family households	65.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.52
Household	Never married (15+)	28.5%
Housing	Median home value	$213,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$920
Housing	Single-family detached	76.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.6%
Housing	Vacant units	12.5%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.4%
Health	With a disability	14.6%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	86.9%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	10.1%
Commute	Drove alone	77.8%
Commute	Public transit	0.2%
Commute	Worked from home	11.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$1	$0	$1	$0	$1

Elections

2026 general house · MO-6 — running

Committees

NATHAN WILLETT FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$50,887	$421,385	8

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2026-05-15	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	oppose	$23,623	PRINT ADS
2026-05-15	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	oppose	$7,000	Text Messaging
2026-05-11	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	oppose	$23,623	PRINT ADS
2026-05-11	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	oppose	$23,623	PRINT ADS
2026-05-06	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	oppose	$29,500	AD BUY
2026-04-16	CONSERVATIVE FUTURE FUND	support	$6,317	MEDIA PRODUCTION
2026-04-14	CONSERVATIVE FUTURE FUND	support	$44,570	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2026-04-09	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	oppose	$314,016	Media Placement

Connected on the graph

Inbound (8)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-05-15	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	opposes_independently	$23,623	fec_ies
2026-05-15	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	opposes_independently	$7,000	fec_ies
2026-05-11	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	opposes_independently	$23,623	fec_ies
2026-05-11	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	opposes_independently	$23,623	fec_ies
2026-05-06	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	opposes_independently	$29,500	fec_ies
2026-04-16	CONSERVATIVE FUTURE FUND	supports_independently	$6,317	fec_ies
2026-04-14	CONSERVATIVE FUTURE FUND	supports_independently	$44,570	fec_ies
2026-04-09	COME AND TAKE IT PAC	opposes_independently	$314,016	fec_ies

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	NATHAN WILLETT FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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