FORSTAG, SAMUEL KELLEY

D · house

FEC candidate id: H6MT01137
Internal id: dce44b56-8874-4a67-967e-21c4b515e292
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MT-01. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	564,861
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$73,598
Income	Per-capita income	$43,045
Income	In poverty	11.4%
Income	Unemployed	3.4%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.475
Race	White alone	86.4%
Race	Black alone	0.3%
Race	Asian alone	1.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	4.4%
Race	Two or more races	6.9%
Origin	Foreign-born	2.8%
Language	Speaks English only at home	95.6%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.7%
Education	High school or higher	64.0%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	38.8%
Education	Advanced degree	14.1%
Household	Family households	59.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.36
Household	Never married (15+)	32.0%
Housing	Median home value	$466,200
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,174
Housing	Single-family detached	67.7%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.0%
Housing	Vacant units	13.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.6%
Health	With a disability	13.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.2%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.8%
Commute	Drove alone	69.8%
Commute	Public transit	0.6%
Commute	Worked from home	14.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$449,612	$237,070	$212,542	$0	$395,320

Elections

2026 general house · MT-1 — running

Committees

SAM FOR MONTANA — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-03-31	MAC PAC	24K	$1,000
2026-03-31	LEAGUE OF LABOR VOTERS	24K	$2,500
2026-03-23	SPIKE PAC	24K	$1,000
2026-03-20	YINZER PAC	24K	$1,000
2026-03-13	MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE…	24K	$5,000
2026-03-13	MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE…	24K	$5,000
2026-02-24	CONGRESSIONAL PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-01-05	PROGRESSIVE VOTERS OF AMERICA	24K	$5,000
2026-01-05	PROGRESSIVE VOTERS OF AMERICA	24K	$5,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (9)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-03-31	LEAGUE OF LABOR VOTERS	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2026-03-31	MAC PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2026-03-23	SPIKE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2026-03-20	YINZER PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2026-03-13	MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-13	MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-24	CONGRESSIONAL PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-01-05	PROGRESSIVE VOTERS OF AMERICA	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-01-05	PROGRESSIVE VOTERS OF AMERICA	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	SAM FOR MONTANA	—		candidate_committees

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