FLINT, AARON
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6MT01152- Internal id
8a89d2c9-9114-4268-a9bc-b35c977a6848- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MT-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 564,861 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $73,598 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $43,045 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.475 |
| Race | White alone | 86.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 0.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.8% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 95.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 64.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.8% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.1% |
| Household | Family households | 59.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.36 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $466,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,174 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 67.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.0% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 8.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 69.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $453,653 | $24,253 | $429,399 | $0 | $278,162 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· MT-1 β running
Committees
- FLINT FOR MONTANA β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,027,673 | $0 | 24 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | support | $25,000 | PLACED MEDIA: CONNECTED TV |
| 2026-05-08 | AMERICAN MISSION | support | $35,858 | PRINTING / POSTAGE |
| 2026-05-07 | AMERICAN MISSION | support | $35,883 | PRINTING / POSTAGE |
| 2026-05-05 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $17,800 | Direct Mail |
| 2026-05-01 | SEAL PAC USA | support | $50,000 | GRASSROOTS ACTIVISM |
| 2026-05-01 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $39,000 | Advertising Placement |
| 2026-05-01 | SEAL PAC USA | support | $50,000 | DIGITAL ADVERTISING |
| 2026-04-28 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | support | $40,173 | DIGITAL ADVERTISING |
| 2026-04-24 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $10,000 | Video production |
| 2026-04-23 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $17,800 | Direct Mail |
| 2026-04-23 | AMERICAN MISSION | support | $428,924 | MEDIA PLACEMENT / MEDIA PRODUCTION |
| 2026-04-23 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $33,944 | SMS Setup and Send |
| 2026-04-20 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $17,516 | Video production |
| 2026-04-06 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $25,000 | Video Placement |
| 2026-04-03 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | support | $27,021 | DIGITAL ADVERTISING |
| 2026-04-03 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | support | $66,051 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2026-03-21 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $28,750 | Video Production and Placement |
| 2026-03-13 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | support | $6,150 | PRODUCTION COST: TV |
| 2026-03-13 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | support | $4,100 | PRODUCTION COST: DIGITAL ADVERTISING |
| 2026-03-12 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | support | $30,000 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2026-03-12 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | support | $20,000 | DIGITAL ADVERTISING |
| 2026-03-10 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $11,650 | Radio Ad Production and Placement to Support Aaron Flint |
| 2026-03-04 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $4,118 | Digital Ad to support Aaron Flint |
| 2026-03-04 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | support | $2,935 | SMS to Support Aaron Flint |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Connected on the graph
Inbound (52)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | supports_independently | $25,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-08 | AMERICAN MISSION | supports_independently | $35,858 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-07 | AMERICAN MISSION | supports_independently | $35,883 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-05 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $17,800 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-01 | SEAL PAC USA | supports_independently | $50,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-01 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $39,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-01 | SEAL PAC USA | supports_independently | $50,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-28 | NATIONAL CATTLEMEN'S BEEF ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (NCBA-PAC) | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-04-28 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | supports_independently | $40,173 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-24 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-23 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $17,800 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-23 | AMERICAN MISSION | supports_independently | $428,924 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-23 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $33,944 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-20 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $17,516 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-06 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $25,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-03 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | supports_independently | $27,021 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-03 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | supports_independently | $66,051 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-26 | BUCKEYE LIBERTY PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-26 | JIM JORDAN FOR CONGRESS | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-26 | FIELD OF DREAMS PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | RVFPAC | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | FREEDOM FORCE PAC | contributed_to | $3,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | FREEDOM FORCE PAC | contributed_to | $3,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | COOL PAC | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-21 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | contributed_to | $28,750 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-21 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $28,750 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-18 | LET'S ALL KEEP ELECTING REPUBLICANS PAC | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-17 | EMMER FOR CONGRESS | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-17 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | contributed_to | $1,110 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-17 | AMERICA'S FIRST PAC | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-13 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | contributed_to | $4,100 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-13 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | supports_independently | $4,100 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-13 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | supports_independently | $6,150 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-13 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | contributed_to | $6,150 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-12 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | supports_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-12 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | contributed_to | $20,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-12 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | supports_independently | $20,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-12 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | contributed_to | $30,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-10 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $11,650 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-10 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | contributed_to | $11,650 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-09 | MIKE JOHNSON FOR LOUISIANA | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-04 | SEND IN THE SEAL PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-04 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | contributed_to | $4,117 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-04 | TIM SHEEHY FOR MONTANA | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-04 | TIM SHEEHY FOR MONTANA | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-04 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | contributed_to | $2,934 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-04 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $4,118 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-04 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | supports_independently | $2,935 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-04 | SEND IN THE SEAL PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-03 | COMMANDER ZINKE | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-03 | COMMANDER ZINKE | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-02 | LEADERSHIP IN ACTION | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | FLINT FOR MONTANA | β | candidate_committees |