MCCARTHY, CAROLYN
D Β· house Β· bioguide M000309
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- FEC candidate id
H6NY04112- Internal id
55d33973-9cd2-4a80-9210-649876ffdf1f- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-04. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 773,177 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $141,082 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $57,503 |
| Income | In poverty | 6.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.432 |
| Race | White alone | 51.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 17.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 7.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 22.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 11.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 24.2% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 69.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 16.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 68.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 44.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 19.9% |
| Household | Family households | 76.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.06 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 34.9% |
| Housing | Median home value | $648,400 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,147 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 74.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 13.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 4.0% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 5.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 3.0% |
| Health | With a disability | 9.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 94.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.1% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 60.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 12.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.6% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1,651 | $138,749 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2014 | $772,240 | $1,200,090 | $137,098 | $0 | $509,379 |
| 2012 | $2,278,000 | $1,860,331 | $564,947 | $0 | $1,448,387 |
| 2010 | $1,684,444 | $1,726,969 | $147,278 | $0 | $966,763 |
| 2008 | $1,336,625 | $1,520,498 | $189,803 | $0 | $798,645 |
| 2006 | $1,441,806 | $1,368,804 | $373,677 | $0 | $878,886 |
| 2004 | $1,769,157 | $1,688,009 | $300,674 | $0 | $1,221,137 |
| 2002 | $1,902,518 | $1,794,935 | $219,526 | $0 | $1,388,015 |
| 2000 | $2,003,462 | $1,923,299 | $111,942 | $0 | $1,448,655 |
| 1998 | $808,282 | $896,128 | $31,778 | $0 | $526,513 |
| 1996 | $1,087,082 | $967,221 | $119,626 | $4,166 | $807,009 |
Elections
- 1996 general house Β· NY-4 β won
- 1998 general house Β· NY-4 β won
- 2000 general house Β· NY-4 β won
- 2002 general house Β· NY-4 β won
- 2004 general house Β· NY-4 β won
- 2006 general house Β· NY-4 β won
- 2008 general house Β· NY-4 β won
- 2010 general house Β· NY-4 β won
- 2012 general house Β· NY-4 β won
- 2014 general house Β· NY-4 β lost_general
Committees
- FRIENDS OF CAROLYN MCCARTHY β principal Β· type H
- JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
Recent votes
No votes on file.
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
No sponsorships on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF CAROLYN MCCARTHY | β | candidate_committees |