LUCAS, JOSHUA KAITAN
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6NY09178- Internal id
fe75b27e-8887-40ed-9afb-6630ef3c988c- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-09. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 737,304 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $75,855 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,612 |
| Income | In poverty | 18.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 8.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.501 |
| Race | White alone | 33.3% |
| Race | Black alone | 41.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 8.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 11.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 9.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 38.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 62.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 8.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 64.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 15.7% |
| Household | Family households | 60.9% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.61 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 44.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $854,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,754 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 6.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 10.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 11.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 1.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 9.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 20.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 48.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 15.6% |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· NY-9 β running
Committees
- KAITAN FOR THE PEOPLE β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | KAITAN FOR THE PEOPLE | β | candidate_committees |