RAYNER, JEFFREY
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6NY23567- Internal id
ddb8ad63-10fa-4eed-aad7-58f06c55b898- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-23. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 770,072 |
| People | Median age | 44 |
| Income | Median household income | $72,834 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $41,154 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.454 |
| Race | White alone | 90.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 3.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 4.6% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.8% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 94.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 30.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.8% |
| Household | Family households | 62.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.30 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $185,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $929 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.1% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 12.7% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.5% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 77.0% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.5% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 10.5% |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· NY-23 β running
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.