WAGNER, JUSTIN
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6PA16379- Internal id
62a5dd2d-2729-4017-9ce2-4ed9eb85e0a7- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), PA-16. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 762,592 |
| People | Median age | 43 |
| Income | Median household income | $67,764 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $38,561 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.460 |
| Race | White alone | 88.3% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.3% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 2.9% |
| Race | Two or more races | 5.0% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 95.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.4% |
| Education | High school or higher | 67.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 30.0% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 11.0% |
| Household | Family households | 62.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.31 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.7% |
| Housing | Median home value | $188,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $896 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 71.5% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 7.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.0% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 9.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.6% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $31,473 | $12,520 | $23,953 | $0 | $30,803 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· PA-16 β running
Committees
- JUSTIN WAGNER FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | PENNSYLVANIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY | 24K | $6,005 |
| 2026-01-06 | MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE⦠| 24K | $5,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (2)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | PENNSYLVANIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY | contributed_to | $6,005 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-06 | MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | JUSTIN WAGNER FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |