SMITH, MATTHEW
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6TX19263- Internal id
f996fb1a-a959-48fb-9a80-46b9a81476bd- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-19. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 773,548 |
| People | Median age | 34 |
| Income | Median household income | $63,608 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $33,464 |
| Income | In poverty | 16.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.3% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.469 |
| Race | White alone | 63.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 6.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 39.1% |
| Race | Two or more races | 20.1% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 8.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 75.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 21.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 55.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 25.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.1% |
| Household | Family households | 64.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.52 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 35.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $172,700 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,104 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 72.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 3.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 12.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.9% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 78.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.4% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 6.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $376,368 | $345,462 | $30,907 | $320,000 | $50,368 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· TX-19 β running
Committees
- FAT MATT SMITH FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | TENNESSEE TOUGH PAC | 24K | $1,000 |
| 2025-12-31 | NATIONAL ROOFING CONTRACTORS ASSOCIATION ROOF P⦠| 24K | $5,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (2)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | TENNESSEE TOUGH PAC | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-12-31 | NATIONAL ROOFING CONTRACTORS ASSOCIATION ROOF PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | FAT MATT SMITH FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |