TRAINOR, JAMES E III
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6TX21376- Internal id
6b4d1779-e2c1-4bf3-b586-5d7c313d2918- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-21. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 810,199 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $95,646 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $53,163 |
| Income | In poverty | 8.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.467 |
| Race | White alone | 66.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 3.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 31.9% |
| Race | Two or more races | 21.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 8.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 80.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 15.8% |
| Education | High school or higher | 65.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 47.0% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 18.1% |
| Household | Family households | 66.7% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.47 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 27.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $411,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,477 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 68.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 9.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 94.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 3.6% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 68.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.4% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 19.9% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $151,643 | $148,869 | $2,774 | $1,500 | $143,347 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· TX-21 Β· 2026-11-03 β running
Committees
- TREY TRAINOR FOR TEXAS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $20,000 | $0 | 1 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC | support | $20,000 | DOOR HANGER AND CANVASSING TO SUPPORT |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC | 24E | $20,000 |
| 2025-12-15 | VICTORY AND NATION PAC | 24K | $3,500 |
| 2025-12-15 | VICTORY AND NATION PAC | 24K | $3,500 |
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee TREY TRAINOR FOR TEXAS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELLIS, JAMES | β | ALEXANDRIA, VA | 1 | $3,000 |
| OLDHAM, DALTON | β | COLUMBIA, SC | 1 | $3,000 |
| SPARKS, DON L | DISCOVERY OPERATING Β· ENGINEER | MIDLAND, TX | 1 | $2,500 |
| BINNALL, JESSE | BINNALL LAW GROUP Β· LAWYER | ALEXANDRIA, VA | 1 | $1,041 |
| MITCHELL, CLETA | SELF-EMPLOYED Β· ATTORNEY | PINEHURST, NC | 1 | $1,041 |
| BIRDWELL, BRIAN | β | GRANBURY, TX | 1 | $1,000 |
| PRINCE, ZAN | FBT Β· MANAGER | ALEDO, TX | 1 | $1,000 |
| BALIDO, NELSON | BALIDO AND ASSOC Β· PRINCIPAL | BOERNE, TX | 1 | $500 |
| BOSE, SUDIP | SELF-EMPLOYED Β· PHYSICIAN | CHICAGO, IL | 1 | $500 |
| GROSSMAN, ANDREW | BAKER HOSTETLER Β· ATTORNEY | WASHINGTON, DC | 1 | $500 |
| SELLERS, LENN | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | AUSTIN, TX | 1 | $500 |
| BIESEL, BETH | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | DALLAS, TX | 1 | $260 |
| SPIES, CHARLES | DICKINSON WRIGHT PLLC Β· ATTORNEY | WASHINGTON, DC | 1 | $250 |
| SISK, KATHRYN | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | SPRING BRANCH, TX | 2 | $208 |
| YOUNCE, CHRISTOPHER | SELF-EMPLOYED Β· CONSULTANT | ALEXANDRIA, VA | 1 | $208 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (7)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $20,000 | 24E | fec_pas2 |
| 2026-02-23 | STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC | contributed_to | $20,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-23 | STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC | supports_independently | $20,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-12-15 | VICTORY AND NATION PAC | contributed_to | $3,500 | pas2 | |
| 2025-12-15 | VICTORY AND NATION PAC | contributed_to | $3,500 | pas2 | |
| 2025-12-15 | VICTORY AND NATION PAC | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $3,500 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
| 2025-12-15 | VICTORY AND NATION PAC | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $3,500 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | TREY TRAINOR FOR TEXAS | β | candidate_committees |