HAYNES, FREDERICK III

D · house

FEC candidate id: H6TX30245
Internal id: d56671ee-0627-466b-8083-25b23f1791f0
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-30. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	779,620
People	Median age	34
Income	Median household income	$72,761
Income	Per-capita income	$37,620
Income	In poverty	16.3%
Income	Unemployed	5.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.467
Race	White alone	24.5%
Race	Black alone	40.1%
Race	Asian alone	3.4%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	37.1%
Race	Two or more races	19.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	17.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	66.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	29.2%
Education	High school or higher	56.0%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	31.0%
Education	Advanced degree	11.7%
Household	Family households	59.4%
Household	Avg household size	2.60
Household	Never married (15+)	44.1%
Housing	Median home value	$263,700
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,639
Housing	Single-family detached	54.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.8%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	5.0%
Housing	Vacant units	7.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.2%
Health	With a disability	14.1%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.7%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.1%
Commute	Drove alone	69.2%
Commute	Public transit	1.4%
Commute	Worked from home	14.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$347,441	$222,592	$124,849	$0	$314,426

Elections

2026 general house · TX-30 — running

Committees

HAYNES FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$200,000	$0	5

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	support	$5,000	Digital Advertising Production
2026-02-19	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	support	$28,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
2026-02-17	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	support	$95,000	Non-Contribution Account - Digital Ad Buy
2026-02-12	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	support	$5,000	Non-Contribution Account - Production
2026-02-11	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	support	$67,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-03-30	PETE AGUILAR FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2026-03-02	MEDICARE FOR ALL	24K	$5,000
2026-03-02	PEACE, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND LEADERSHIP POLITICAL…	24K	$3,500
2026-03-02	PEACE, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND LEADERSHIP POLITICAL…	24K	$1,500
2026-03-02	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF GOVT. EMPL. POLITICAL AC…	24K	$2,500
2026-03-01	A NEW POLICY PAC	24K	$1,002
2026-02-27	MARCH ON PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-02-26	CONGRESSIONAL PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-02-23	COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA - COPE POLITI…	24K	$2,500
2026-02-22	A NEW POLICY PAC	24K	$6,650
2026-02-19	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	24E	$28,000
2026-02-17	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	24E	$95,000
2026-02-17	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	24E	$5,000
2026-02-12	UNITED FOOD AND COMMERCIAL WORKERS INTERNATIONA…	24K	$5,000
2026-02-12	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	24E	$5,000
2026-02-11	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	24E	$67,000
2026-02-10	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-01-26	MARCHING ONWARD PAC	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (23)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
2026-03-30	PETE AGUILAR FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-03-02	PEACE, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND LEADERSHIP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$3,500	pas2
2026-03-02	PEACE, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND LEADERSHIP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2026-03-02	MEDICARE FOR ALL	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-02	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF GOVT. EMPL. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2026-03-01	A NEW POLICY PAC	contributed_to	$1,002	pas2
2026-02-27	MARCH ON PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-26	CONGRESSIONAL PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-23	COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA - COPE POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2026-02-22	A NEW POLICY PAC	contributed_to	$6,650	pas2
2026-02-19	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	supports_independently	$28,000	fec_ies
2026-02-19	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	contributed_to	$28,000	pas2
2026-02-17	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	supports_independently	$95,000	fec_ies
2026-02-17	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	contributed_to	$95,000	pas2
2026-02-17	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-12	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-12	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
2026-02-12	UNITED FOOD AND COMMERCIAL WORKERS INTERNATIONAL UNION ACTIVE BALLOT CLUB	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-11	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	contributed_to	$67,000	pas2
2026-02-11	AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)	supports_independently	$67,000	fec_ies
2026-02-10	JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-01-26	MARCHING ONWARD PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	HAYNES FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE	—		candidate_committees

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