EARLY, JUSTIN
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6TX31094- Internal id
7594c325-1a47-4287-9caf-a2cf5a47c1f4- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-31. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 843,922 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $96,016 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $46,023 |
| Income | In poverty | 8.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.441 |
| Race | White alone | 63.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 7.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.9% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 24.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 16.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 11.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 79.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 13.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.6% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.0% |
| Household | Family households | 71.7% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.68 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 27.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $378,400 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,475 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 75.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 6.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 10.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 93.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 67.9% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 19.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $89,298 | $81,616 | $7,682 | $56,893 | $43,906 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· TX-31 β running
Committees
- JUSTIN EARLY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS⦠| 24K | $3,500 |
| 2025-11-14 | THE CENTER FOR FREETHOUGHT EQUALITY PAC | 24K | $250 |
| 2025-09-23 | MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE⦠| 24K | $2,500 |
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee JUSTIN EARLY FOR CONGRESS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASE, CATHERINE | DHS Β· RISK ANALYST | PACE, FL | 1 | $25 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (3)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $3,500 | pas2 | |
| 2025-11-14 | THE CENTER FOR FREETHOUGHT EQUALITY PAC | contributed_to | $250 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-23 | MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | JUSTIN EARLY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |