RAINVILLE, MARTHA MS.
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6VT00178- Internal id
a5821abb-a402-435c-99d0-add77416bcaf- Status
- open seat
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | $8,347 | $8,509 | $0 | $0 | $1,000 |
| 2006 | $1,133,136 | $1,132,973 | $163 | $0 | $572,581 |
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
- 2006 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- MARTHA RAINVILLE FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- ROMP III 2006 β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- VERMONT CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY COMMITTEE 2006 β joint_fundraising Β· type Y
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (4)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | ROMP III 2006 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 2006 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | VERMONT CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY COMMITTEE 2006 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | MARTHA RAINVILLE FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |