BLACK, CARMEN ELIZABETH
I Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6WA04240- Internal id
4eaf4056-c2d4-456f-81f5-e42754aedbaa- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), WA-04. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 781,735 |
| People | Median age | 35 |
| Income | Median household income | $77,137 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $35,454 |
| Income | In poverty | 14.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.440 |
| Race | White alone | 56.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 1.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 41.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 21.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 15.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 65.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 31.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 51.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 24.0% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.9% |
| Household | Family households | 70.4% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.79 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $356,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,168 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 65.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 6.2% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 5.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 7.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 74.7% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 10.0% |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· WA-4 β running
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 10.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.