TRAUNER, GARY S
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6WY01025- Internal id
26e85113-212a-426a-93f7-be7696832286- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | $1,672,707 | $1,716,013 | $1,830 | $0 | $1,242,462 |
| 2006 | $985,458 | $940,185 | $45,272 | $0 | $800,608 |
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
- REPUBLICANS FOR TRAUNER β independent Β· type U
- TRAUNER FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | independent_committee_of | REPUBLICANS FOR TRAUNER | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | TRAUNER FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |