SMITH, AJA

R · house

FEC candidate id: H8CA41170
Internal id: 32ab0dd2-0a0b-41b6-b07d-91e3a68bc639
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-41. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	797,949
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$103,180
Income	Per-capita income	$46,539
Income	In poverty	8.7%
Income	Unemployed	6.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.454
Race	White alone	47.2%
Race	Black alone	5.2%
Race	Asian alone	8.3%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	40.2%
Race	Two or more races	19.9%
Origin	Foreign-born	18.9%
Language	Speaks English only at home	66.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	25.0%
Education	High school or higher	55.4%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	31.6%
Education	Advanced degree	11.4%
Household	Family households	72.5%
Household	Avg household size	2.94
Household	Never married (15+)	31.7%
Housing	Median home value	$626,200
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,976
Housing	Single-family detached	67.8%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	5.4%
Housing	Vacant units	16.8%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.6%
Health	With a disability	12.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.2%
Commute	Drove alone	71.9%
Commute	Public transit	0.5%
Commute	Worked from home	15.9%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$0	$1,995	$0	$0	$0
2022	$163,142	$150,021	$1,995	$0	$163,058
2020	$668,055	$667,306	$1,016	$13,367	$660,228
2018	$43,985	$43,652	$333	$0	$41,965

Elections

2018 general house · CA-41 — lost_general
2020 general house · CA-41 — lost_general
2022 general house · CA-41 — lost_general

Committees

AJA SMITH FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
AJA SMITH FOR CONGRESS 2022 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	24E	$3,500
2022-08-12	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	24K	$5,000
2022-01-27	BLACK AMERICA'S POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$5,000
2021-05-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$8

Connected on the graph

Inbound (8)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
—	ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$3,500	24E	fec_pas2
—	ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	contributed_to	$3,500		pas2
2022-08-12	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-08-12	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-01-27	BLACK AMERICA'S POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-01-27	BLACK AMERICA'S POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-05-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$8	24A	fec_pas2
2021-05-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$8		pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	AJA SMITH FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	AJA SMITH FOR CONGRESS 2022	—		candidate_committees

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