MARYOTT, BRIAN L MR

R · house

FEC candidate id: H8CA49108
Internal id: 47752812-2a0f-4e00-849c-d62205f8512e
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-49. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	754,648
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$121,073
Income	Per-capita income	$62,491
Income	In poverty	7.6%
Income	Unemployed	5.0%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.472
Race	White alone	60.6%
Race	Black alone	2.4%
Race	Asian alone	7.2%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	27.4%
Race	Two or more races	20.3%
Origin	Foreign-born	17.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	73.9%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	17.3%
Education	High school or higher	64.4%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	49.4%
Education	Advanced degree	19.5%
Household	Family households	70.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.69
Household	Never married (15+)	31.4%
Housing	Median home value	$1,043,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,582
Housing	Single-family detached	52.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.4%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	4.6%
Housing	Vacant units	7.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.4%
Health	With a disability	9.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	95.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	2.4%
Commute	Drove alone	63.1%
Commute	Public transit	0.9%
Commute	Worked from home	22.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$7,000	$6,940	$117	$1,626,331	$0
2024	$1,454,140	$1,457,787	$57	$1,626,331	$985
2022	$5,591,298	$5,599,337	$3,705	$2,998,633	$1,925,410
2020	$3,446,386	$3,444,350	$11,794	$53,173	$1,776,145
2018	$760,194	$750,436	$9,758	$10,000	$52,178

Elections

2018 general house · CA-49 — lost_general
2020 general house · CA-49 — lost_general
2022 general house · CA-49 — lost_general

Committees

MARYOTT FOR CA-49 — principal · type H
MARYOTT FOR CA-49 — principal · type H
MARYOTT FOR CA-49 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2022 — principal · type H
MARYOTT FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$0	$8,037,240	76

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	oppose	$10,398	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$46,750	Radio Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$30,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$24,131	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$791,010	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$600	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$22,112	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$3,000	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$283,305	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,338	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$21,697	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	CHC BOLD PAC	oppose	$5,250	Ad Production - Estimate
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$14,349	Ad Production (Estimate)
—	HMP	oppose	$21,697	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$172,975	Ad Buy (Estimate)
—	HMP	oppose	$7,445	Media Production - Estimate
—	CHC BOLD PAC	oppose	$50,000	Digital Ad Buy - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$20,748	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	CHC BOLD PAC	oppose	$9,000	Ad Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$16,096	Media Production - Estimate
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$282	Research Consulting (Estimate)
—	HMP	oppose	$5,875	Media Production - Estimate
—	CHC BOLD PAC	oppose	$200,000	TV Ad Buy - Estimate
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$230,010	Ad Buy (Estimate)
—	HMP	oppose	$26,294	Digital Production - Estimate

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	CHC BOLD PAC	24A	$9,000
—	HMP	24A	$283,305
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	24A	$304
—	HMP	24A	$18,338
—	CHC BOLD PAC	24A	$50,000
—	CHC BOLD PAC	24A	$200,000
—	CHC BOLD PAC	24A	$5,249
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	24A	$815
2022-12-19	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-12-19	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-12-11	WINRED	24K	$-3
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-09	WINRED	24K	$-3
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-06	WINRED	24K	$-1,000
2022-12-05	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-11-29	WINRED	24K	$-6
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-6
2022-11-17	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-11-17	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-11-17	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-11-17	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-11-17	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-11-17	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-11-15	MISSOURI TRUTH PAC	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$304	pas2
—	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$5,249	pas2
—	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$200,000	pas2
—	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$9,000	pas2
—	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
—	HMP	contributed_to	$283,305	pas2
—	HMP	contributed_to	$18,338	pas2
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$815	pas2
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$3,000	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$305	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$14,349	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$424	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$294	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$105,202	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,338	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,487	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$280,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$60,550	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$24,131	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$3,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$10,398	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$26,294	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$559,737	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,338	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,508	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$16,096	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$5,875	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$21,697	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$791,010	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$21,697	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$22,112	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$600	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$394,659	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$779	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$78,600	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$283,305	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$20,748	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$283,305	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$7,445	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$46,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$95,600	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,338	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$104,600	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$87,000	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$172,975	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$230,010	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$282	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$14,349	fec_ies
—	CHC BOLD PAC	opposes_independently	$9,000	fec_ies
—	CHC BOLD PAC	opposes_independently	$200,000	fec_ies
—	CHC BOLD PAC	opposes_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	CHC BOLD PAC	opposes_independently	$5,250	fec_ies
2022-12-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-12-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-12-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2022-12-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-6	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-6	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2	pas2
2022-11-15	MISSOURI TRUTH PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-11-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2	pas2
2022-11-07	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$815	pas2
2022-11-07	HMP	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2022-11-04	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-03	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-03	HMP	contributed_to	$30,000	pas2
2022-11-02	TORCH TECHNOLOGIES, INC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-02	HMP	contributed_to	$46,750	pas2
2022-11-01	DCCC	opposes_independently	$235,279	fec_ies
2022-11-01	HMP	contributed_to	$559,737	pas2
2022-11-01	LCV VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$412	pas2
2022-11-01	FARMER PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-11-01	DCCC	contributed_to	$235,279	pas2
2022-11-01	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$413	fec_ies
2022-10-31	DCCC	opposes_independently	$33,000	fec_ies
2022-10-31	HMP	contributed_to	$105,200	pas2
2022-10-31	CONCERNED AMERICANS FOR FREEDOM & OPPORTUNITY PAC (CAFO PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	ELECTING MAJORITY MAKING EFFECTIVE REPUBLICANS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-31	LCV VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$199,856	pas2
2022-10-31	VOTE TO ELECT REPUBLICANS NOW PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-31	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$25,000	pas2
2022-10-31	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$199,856	fec_ies
2022-10-31	DCCC	contributed_to	$33,000	pas2
2022-10-31	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$172,975	pas2
2022-10-29	CLF	contributed_to	$30,000	pas2
2022-10-29	CLF	contributed_to	$950	pas2
2022-10-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-10-28	DCCC	contributed_to	$14,867	pas2
2022-10-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-10-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2	pas2

Outbound (4)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MARYOTT FOR CA-49	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	MARYOTT FOR CA-49 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2022	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	MARYOTT FOR CONGRESS	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	MARYOTT FOR CA-49	—	candidate_committees

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