MURTAUGH, MORGAN

R · house

FEC candidate id: H8CA53084
Internal id: be060f3b-cc7e-41d7-aa29-f47bac861b01
Status: challenger

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2018	$94,571	$94,571	$0	$0	$94,571

Elections

2018 general house · CA-53 — lost_general

Committees

MURTAUGH FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MURTAUGH FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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