MURPHY, LEE
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8DE01044- Internal id
509a18cd-860c-43f3-beeb-a4f47abe0828- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $349,933 | $355,132 | $-5,148 | $0 | $337,808 |
| 2020 | $131,394 | $131,862 | $247 | $0 | $110,255 |
| 2018 | $20,639 | $25,592 | $2,178 | $0 | $19,439 |
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
- GOMURPH.COM β principal Β· type H
- GOMURPH.COM β principal Β· type H
- LEE MURPHY 2018 β principal Β· type H
- LEE MURPHY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $164,327 | $0 | 4 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-04 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | support | $16,000 | text messages |
| 2022-11-01 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | support | $85,300 | TV Advertising |
| 2022-10-25 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | support | $31,513 | |
| 2022-10-19 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | support | $31,513 | Direct Mail |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-30 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | 24E | $2,250 |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-11-30 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | 24E | $5,562 |
| 2022-11-25 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-11-16 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | 24E | $35,000 |
| 2022-11-07 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | 24E | $5,750 |
| 2022-11-04 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | 24E | $16,000 |
| 2022-11-01 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | 24E | $85,300 |
| 2022-10-26 | HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2022-10-25 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | 24E | $31,513 |
| 2022-10-19 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | 24E | $31,513 |
| 2022-10-05 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-09-29 | DOSE OF REALITY, OPTIMISM AND ZEAL PAC (DR OZ β¦ | 24K | $2,900 |
| 2022-08-24 | CASTLEPAC LLC | 24K | $100 |
| 2022-06-26 | WINRED | 24K | $-75 |
| 2022-06-05 | WINRED | 24K | $-210 |
| 2022-05-16 | CASTLEPAC LLC | 24K | $500 |
| 2022-03-16 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-03-16 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2021-11-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2021-11-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-50 |
| 2021-05-19 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | 24A | $8 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (26)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-30 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | contributed_to | $2,250 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | contributed_to | $5,562 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-25 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-16 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | contributed_to | $35,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-07 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | contributed_to | $5,750 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-04 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | contributed_to | $16,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-04 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | supports_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-01 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | supports_independently | $85,300 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-01 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | contributed_to | $85,300 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-26 | HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-25 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | supports_independently | $31,513 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-10-25 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | contributed_to | $31,513 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-19 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | contributed_to | $31,513 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-19 | FIRST FOR AMERICA | supports_independently | $31,513 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-10-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-29 | DOSE OF REALITY, OPTIMISM AND ZEAL PAC (DR OZ PAC) | contributed_to | $2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-24 | CASTLEPAC LLC | contributed_to | $100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-75 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-210 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-16 | CASTLEPAC LLC | contributed_to | $500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2021-11-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2021-11-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2021-05-19 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | contributed_to | $8 | pas2 |
Outbound (4)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | GOMURPH.COM | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | LEE MURPHY 2018 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | LEE MURPHY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | GOMURPH.COM | β | candidate_committees |