ARNESON, DIRK
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8IA04171- Internal id
ff37bb46-c6a9-4506-8bb5-e925f5706776
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IA-04. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 798,043 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $72,711 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $37,903 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.433 |
| Race | White alone | 84.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 10.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 6.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 89.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 7.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 58.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 26.8% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.6% |
| Household | Family households | 61.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.37 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $182,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $902 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 76.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.5% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 86.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 77.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 8.4% |
Elections
- 2027 general house Β· IA-4 β running
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.