GAYNOR, MICHAEL GREGORY WILLIAM MR SR.
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8KS01050- Internal id
c58c5336-d8e9-4de1-83f2-17892eabc655
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), KS-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 731,585 |
| People | Median age | 36 |
| Income | Median household income | $66,270 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $36,007 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.3% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.443 |
| Race | White alone | 78.6% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.8% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 16.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 11.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 86.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 10.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 57.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 30.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 11.4% |
| Household | Family households | 60.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.35 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $171,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $944 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 72.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.3% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 8.6% |
Elections
- 2028 general house Β· KS-1 β running
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.