GAYNOR, MICHAEL GREGORY WILLIAM MR. SR.
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8KS04195- Internal id
125a510b-ef46-4acd-bc28-254a95a67716
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), KS-04. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 738,195 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $69,200 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $37,242 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.6% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.454 |
| Race | White alone | 73.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 6.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 14.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 11.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 87.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 8.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 57.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 30.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 11.0% |
| Household | Family households | 63.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.49 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $187,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $968 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 72.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 6.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.1% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 79.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.5% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 7.9% |
Elections
- 2028 general house Β· KS-4 β running
Committees
- GAYNOR FOR CONGRESS 2028 β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | GAYNOR FOR CONGRESS 2028 | β | candidate_committees |