BAILEY, TOM
L Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8NC13075- Internal id
c59d3777-9973-4da1-a4da-a8e66fd57d8f- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NC-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 747,584 |
| People | Median age | 42 |
| Income | Median household income | $56,285 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $31,830 |
| Income | In poverty | 17.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.465 |
| Race | White alone | 48.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 39.1% |
| Race | Asian alone | 0.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 8.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.1% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.5% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 91.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 6.8% |
| Education | High school or higher | 53.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 20.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 6.7% |
| Household | Family households | 64.7% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.38 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.5% |
| Housing | Median home value | $167,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $907 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 65.1% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 15.3% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 8.7% |
| Health | With a disability | 17.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 84.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 13.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 79.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 7.5% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $5,855 | $5,677 | $0 | $0 | $5,642 |
Elections
- 2018 general house Β· NC-13 β lost_general
- 2018 general house Β· NC-1 β running
- 2024 general house Β· NC-1 β lost_general
- 2026 general house Β· NC-1 β running
Committees
- COMMITTEE TO ELECT TOM BAILEY β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $46,348 | $0 | 6 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | support | $1,838 | Digital Advertising |
| 2024-10-30 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | support | $2,750 | Digital Advertising |
| 2024-10-29 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | support | $13,389 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-10-24 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | support | $2,750 | Digital Advertising |
| 2024-10-24 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | support | $12,231 | Direct Mail Advertising |
| 2024-10-17 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | support | $13,389 | Direct Mail Advertising |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (6)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | supports_independently | $1,838 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-30 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | supports_independently | $2,750 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-29 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | supports_independently | $13,389 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-24 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | supports_independently | $2,750 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-24 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | supports_independently | $12,231 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | SAVE WESTERN CULTURE | supports_independently | $13,389 | fec_ies |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | COMMITTEE TO ELECT TOM BAILEY | β | candidate_committees |