CAREY, MIKE

R · house

FEC candidate id: H8OH18096
Internal id: e2c680eb-d35b-4e79-a52c-2d04190d3efe
Status: challenger

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2008	$15,079	$15,104	$0	$0	$9,780

Elections

2008 general house · OH-18 — lost_general

Committees

CAREY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-02-20	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	24K	$1,000
2025-12-30	REPUBLICAN ITALIAN AMERICAN COMMITTEE	24K	$500
2025-08-19	AFFORDABLE HOUSING TAX CREDIT COALITION POLITIC…	24K	$4,000
2025-05-21	GAP INC. GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	24K	$5,000
2025-05-21	AMERICAN BAKERS ASSOCIATION AMERICAN BAKERS POL…	24K	$1,000
2025-04-22	PATTERN ENERGY GROUP INC. PAC (PATTERN PAC)	24K	$2,500
2025-04-08	AFFORDABLE HOUSING TAX CREDIT COALITION POLITIC…	24K	$1,000
2025-03-18	PATTERN ENERGY GROUP INC. PAC (PATTERN PAC)	24K	$1,000
2025-02-13	SIDECAR HEALTH INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$2,500
2022-09-30	1890 PAC	24K	$2,900
2022-09-27	KELLEY DRYE & WARREN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$1,000
2022-09-21	GAP INC. GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	24K	$2,500
2022-09-08	WORTHINGTON ENTERPRISES PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-08-22	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	24K	$1,000
2022-08-10	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-06-15	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	24K	$1,000
2022-06-15	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	24K	$1,000
2022-04-27	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-03-14	HEXION INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$2,900
2021-09-23	GAP INC. GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (20)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-02-20	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-12-30	REPUBLICAN ITALIAN AMERICAN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2025-08-19	AFFORDABLE HOUSING TAX CREDIT COALITION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (AFFORDABLE HOUSING PAC)	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2025-05-21	GAP INC. GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-05-21	AMERICAN BAKERS ASSOCIATION AMERICAN BAKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-04-22	PATTERN ENERGY GROUP INC. PAC (PATTERN PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-04-08	AFFORDABLE HOUSING TAX CREDIT COALITION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (AFFORDABLE HOUSING PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-03-18	PATTERN ENERGY GROUP INC. PAC (PATTERN PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-02-13	SIDECAR HEALTH INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-09-30	1890 PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-09-27	KELLEY DRYE & WARREN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-21	GAP INC. GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-09-08	WORTHINGTON ENTERPRISES PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-08-22	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-10	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-06-15	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-06-15	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-04-27	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-14	HEXION INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2021-09-23	GAP INC. GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	CAREY FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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