SHOEMAKER, GARY MICHAEL
L Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8PA19056- Internal id
b7d18e4d-a427-4e23-9bac-b11444eb9674- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $43 | $270 | $0 | $0 | $43 |
| 1998 | $12,187 | $11,960 | $226 | $100 | $6,175 |
Elections
- 1998 general house Β· PA-19 β lost_general
Committees
- SHOEMAKER FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | SHOEMAKER FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |