HELMER, DANIEL
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8VA10080- Internal id
fe910c54-6b29-4ee6-991f-1a864fa6512a- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), VA-10. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 802,125 |
| People | Median age | 38 |
| Income | Median household income | $162,359 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $65,165 |
| Income | In poverty | 5.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.400 |
| Race | White alone | 55.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 8.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 15.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 18.9% |
| Race | Two or more races | 14.0% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 25.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 66.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 14.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 72.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 55.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 24.0% |
| Household | Family households | 77.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.02 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 29.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $674,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,203 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 58.5% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 0.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.8% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 3.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 8.3% |
| Health | With a disability | 7.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 96.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 2.1% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 61.9% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 26.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $934 | $4,164 | $0 | $281,414 | $0 |
| 2024 | $2,010,212 | $2,006,983 | $3,230 | $283,814 | $1,645,210 |
| 2018 | $1,139,199 | $1,139,199 | $0 | $0 | $1,117,219 |
Elections
Committees
- HELMER FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- HELMER FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $4,120,000 | $13,673 | 23 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $500 | IE-Helmer-Digital Media Production |
| β | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $19,500 | IE-Helmer-Media Production (Estimate) |
| 2024-06-17 | VIRGINIANS AGAINST SEXUAL ASSAULT PAC | oppose | $8,700 | Digital Advertising |
| 2024-06-15 | VIRGINIANS AGAINST SEXUAL ASSAULT PAC | oppose | $4,973 | Digital Advertising |
| 2024-06-06 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $1,178,135 | IE-Helmer-Media Buy |
| 2024-06-06 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $42,814 | IE-Helmer-Direct Mail Production, Printing, Postage |
| 2024-06-06 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $42,814 | IE-Helmer-Direct Mail Production, Printing, Postage |
| 2024-06-04 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $42,814 | IE-Helmer-Direct Mail Production, Printing, Postage |
| 2024-06-04 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | support | $27,462 | Direct Mail (Drawdown of 5/28/2024 Prepayment) |
| 2024-05-31 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $42,814 | IE-Helmer-Direct Mail Production, Printing, Postage |
| 2024-05-31 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | support | $27,462 | Direct Mail (Drawdown of 5/28/2024 Prepayment) |
| 2024-05-31 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $1,197,465 | IE-Helmer-Media Buy |
| 2024-05-31 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $42,814 | IE-Helmer-Direct Mail Production, Printing, Postage |
| 2024-05-30 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | support | $27,462 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-05-30 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | support | $27,462 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-05-28 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $42,814 | IE-Helmer-Direct Mail Production, Printing, Postage |
| 2024-05-24 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $9,570 | IE-Helmer-Digital Media Buy |
| 2024-05-24 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $42,814 | IE-Helmer-Direct Mail Production, Printing, Postage |
| 2024-05-23 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $13,161 | IE - Helmer - Media Production |
| 2024-05-23 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $352,668 | IE-Helmer-Media Buy |
| 2024-05-20 | PROTECT PROGRESS | support | $883,893 | IE-Helmer-Media Buy |
| 2024-05-16 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | support | $28,098 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-05-16 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | support | $27,462 | Direct Mail |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | GET OUT THE VOTE PAC | 24K | $-100 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (24)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $500 | fec_ies | |
| β | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $19,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-12-22 | GET OUT THE VOTE | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2024-06-17 | VIRGINIANS AGAINST SEXUAL ASSAULT PAC | opposes_independently | $8,700 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-15 | VIRGINIANS AGAINST SEXUAL ASSAULT PAC | opposes_independently | $4,973 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-06 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $42,814 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-06 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $42,814 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-06 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $1,178,135 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-04 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | supports_independently | $27,462 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-04 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $42,814 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-31 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $1,197,465 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-31 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $42,814 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-31 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $42,814 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-31 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | supports_independently | $27,462 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-30 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | supports_independently | $27,462 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-30 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | supports_independently | $27,462 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-28 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $42,814 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-24 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $9,570 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-24 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $42,814 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-23 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $13,161 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-23 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $352,668 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-20 | PROTECT PROGRESS | supports_independently | $883,893 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-16 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | supports_independently | $28,098 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-16 | WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. | supports_independently | $27,462 | fec_ies |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | HELMER FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | HELMER FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |