ARNOLD, KEITH
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8WA08080- Internal id
bbcd8a4b-262a-4aaa-a40d-83b317f68c71- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), WA-08. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 781,768 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $127,442 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $61,542 |
| Income | In poverty | 6.2% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.450 |
| Race | White alone | 69.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 11.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 11.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 11.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 15.3% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 80.5% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 6.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 63.3% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 42.0% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 15.9% |
| Household | Family households | 74.8% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.77 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 26.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $695,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,924 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 77.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.8% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.8% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 7.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.5% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 94.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 3.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 65.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.4% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 21.6% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | $36 | $36 | $0 | $8 | $0 |
Elections
- 2008 general house Β· WA-8 β lost_general
- 2010 general house Β· WA-8 β lost_general
- 2012 general house Β· WA-8 β lost_general
- 2014 general house Β· WA-8 β lost_general
- 2016 general house Β· WA-8 β lost_general
- 2018 general house Β· WA-8 β lost_general
- 2020 general house Β· WA-8 β lost_general
- 2022 general house Β· WA-8 β lost_general
- 2024 general house Β· WA-8 β lost_general
Committees
- KEITH L ARNOLD CAMPAIGN β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | KEITH L ARNOLD CAMPAIGN | β | candidate_committees |