THOMPSON, FRED DALTON

R · president

FEC candidate id: P00003186
Internal id: b754a553-a21a-440f-b0a6-2075c3c73642
Status: open seat

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2008	$24,519,318	$24,316,845	$202,472	$24,376	$23,692,128

Elections

2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running

Committees

CALIFORNIA FOR FRED THOMPSON DRAFT COMMITTEE — independent · type U
COMMITTEE FOR DELEGATES — independent · type U
DRAFT FRED THOMPSON 2008 — independent · type U
FRED THOMPSON POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE — principal · type Q
FRED THOMPSON POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE — independent · type Q

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (5)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	independent_committee_of	FRED THOMPSON POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	DRAFT FRED THOMPSON 2008	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	CALIFORNIA FOR FRED THOMPSON DRAFT COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	DELEGATES	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	FRED THOMPSON POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees

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