LAWLER, BRYAN
OTHER Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P00005462- Internal id
f3f00639-85f1-4aad-a8b8-8a8e566536f1- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 2020 general president β running
- 2020 general president β running
- 2020 general president β running
- 2020 general president β running
- 2020 general president β running
- 2020 general president β running
- 2020 general president β running
- 2020 general president β running
- 2020 general president β running
- 2020 general president β running
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | AMERICAN SECURITY PAC | 24K | $2,500 |
| 2025-03-24 | AMERICAN SECURITY PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2022-10-26 | AMERICAN SECURITY PAC | 24K | $1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (3)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | AMERICAN SECURITY PAC | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2025-03-24 | AMERICAN SECURITY PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-26 | AMERICAN SECURITY PAC | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 |